Munroe Regional Associates Weather Alert Information

A friendly reminder to everyone to replace their batteries, follow their department policies for preparation, prepare at home with canned food, alternative energy sources and making sure everyone has their Emergency Drinking Water source, as well as medication needs in the event of potential activation. It looks like we will have an active storm season this year so now is the time to get prepared.

Tropical Storm Issac - 08/26/2012 09:00 EDT

  • At 5am EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located in the Florida Straits about 50 miles north of the central Cuba coastline and approximately 205 miles east-southeast of Key West, Florida.
  • Isaac has increased forward speed slightly, now moving northwest around 18 mph. A general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through the next 2 days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday.
  • Computer model guidance beyond the next 24 hours has increased in disagreement, with a range of possibilities between the Florida Big Bend southeast Louisiana. Most of the computer models are now clustered between Mobile and New Orleans. The models that still show a more eastward track have Isaac being picked up by a storm system and trough currently in the Central U.S., while the westward models show that the trough will be too weak and will bypass Isaac completely, instead, being steered by high pressure in the central Atlantic and a small area of high pressure moving towards the Southeast U.S. Coast.
  • The official NHC forecast has sped up slightly and shifted west (beyond 36 hours), taking Tropical Storm Isaac across the Florida Keys later today, then on a course towards Mobile. However, confidence in the track of Isaac beyond Monday is still highly uncertain.
  • Despite the ragged appearance on satellite, maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. Although Isaac is feeling the effects of land interaction and some dry air, strengthening is expected to occur as it moves through the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
  • Isaac is expected to be a hurricane within the next 18 hours, reaching Category 1 intensity either just prior or just after passing through the Florida Keys.
  • There is a 57% chance that Isaac could remain a tropical storm over the next 24 hours, but nearly every intensity model shows Isaac becoming a hurricane within 36 hours and strengthening. Most models keep Isaac a strong Category 1 until final landfall, but a few strengthen it into a major hurricane.
  • The official forecast has Isaac strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane Tuesday afternoon, about 12 hours prior to landfall on the Gulf Coast.
  • Isaac remains a large storm, and tropical storm force winds extend as far as 205 miles from the center.
  • More information is available from the National Hurricane Center.

Invest 97L:

  • A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, designated as invest area 97L, has changed little in organization. Additional development is still possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at 10-15mph, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.
  • Initial computer models take 97L northwestward through the central Atlantic during the next 5 days while intensifying into a tropical storm. The next name on the 2012 storm list is Kirk.

Tropical Storm Issac - 08/25/2012 09:00 EDT

  • At 8am EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Isaac was emerging from the coast of Haiti, located about 125 miles northwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or approximately 587 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
  • Isaac continues to move northwest around 14mph. A general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through the next 3 days, followed by a turn to the north on Tuesday.
  • Although computer models guidance is spread between a track up the Florida Peninsula and a more westward track towards Louisiana, most of the computer models are tightly clustered. These, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac across eastern Cuba today and moving out into the Florida Straits Saturday night or early Sunday morning.
  • Isaac is then forecast move over the Florida Keys late Sunday night, parallel Southwest Florida Monday, then turn towards the north on Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough, eventually making landfall Tuesday night somewhere in the Florida Panhandle, although the range of possibilities is still between Apalachee Bay and southeastern Louisiana.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. Although Isaac is feeling the effects of land interaction, strengthening is expected to occur once Isaac emerges from the eastern Cuba tonight.
  • Given that Isaac will spend less time over land and stayed intact over Haiti, very warm water temperatures in the Florida Straits will promote strengthening and Isaac is expected to be a hurricane within the next 36 hours before reaching the Keys.
  • There is a 50% chance that Isaac could remain a tropical storm, but every intensity model shows Isaac becoming a hurricane either in the Florida Straits or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
  • Isaac remains a large storm, and tropical storm force winds now extend as far as 230 miles from the center.
  • More information is available from the National Hurricane Center.

Invest 97L:

  • A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic, designated as invest area 97L, has changed little in organization. Additional development is still possible over the next few days as it moves west-northwest at 10-15mph, and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a medium (30%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.
  • Initial computer models take 97L northwestward through the central Atlantic during the next 5 days while intensifying into a tropical storm. The next name on the 2012 storm list is Kirk.

Tropical Storm Isaac | August 24, 2012 | 0900 EDT

  • At 5am EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 230 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, or approximately 940 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
  • Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a more southern circulation position last night, but that center is moving a little north of due west at 15 mph. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to Isaac and will give a better position estimate and track later this morning. Nonetheless, a general west-northwest motion is expected later today, followed by a turn to the northwest tonight.
  • High pressure responsible for steering Isaac is weakening and shifting east. Computer model track guidance is in good agreement and many of these, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac on a northwest course across southern Haiti tonight and then across eastern and central Cuba on Saturday.
  • Isaac is then forecast to emerge into the Florida Straits early Sunday morning and move over or near the Lower Florida Keys late Sunday night. Isaac should continue a northwest motion into the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making a turn more towards the north on Wednesday, eventually making landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Louisiana.
  • Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Although Isaac remains poorly organized, there is still time for Isaac to strengthen a little today before starting to get disrupted by land.
  • Any land interaction with Haiti tonight and Cuba tomorrow will likely weaken the storm, and there is a 30% chance that Isaac could weaken to a depression. However, if Isaac remains intact, warm water in the Florida Straits will allow for some re-strengthening once it emerges from Cuba.
  • There is a 25% chance that Isaac could become a hurricane before reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast and a 40% chance it stays a tropical storm.
  • Isaac remains a large storm, with tropical storm force winds extending as far as 185 miles from the center.
  • Several Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will be deployed again today that will help further increase confidence in the long-range track and intensity. It is important to note that computer model guidance, especially beyond 72 hours, can still be unreliable.
  • More information is available from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Florida Outlook:

 

  • Tropical Storm Watches could be issued as early as this afternoon or tonight for portions of southern Florida. The Florida Panhandle and much of West Central and South Florida remains within the 5 day error cone. Remember that the cone does not necessarily forecast impacts. Everyone in and near the error cone should continue to closely monitor this system and continue to review their preparedness plans.
  • There is now a 40% chance that the middle and lower Keys could receive tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Other areas of South and Southwest Florida have a 20-40% chance. Tampa currently has a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, Tallahassee has a 24% chance and Pensacola has a 28% chance. All of Florida still has less than a 5% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within 5 days.
  • It is too early to forecast the extent of any affects Tropical Storm Isaac will have on Florida. However, the large nature of Isaac could bring areas of heavy rainfall to South Florida and West Central Florida, and then eventually Northwest Florida which could lead to flooding issues. Flood Warnings are in effect for 6 Florida rivers. Storms in the eastern Gulf are also prone to producing tornadoes and large waves


Weather Watch Alert - Tropical Storm Isaac - August 23 | 1545 EDT

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and August has traditionally been an active month in the six-month period. Friday is the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which caused widespread damage when it came barreling ashore south of Miami on August 24, 1992.

We are monitoring Tropical Storm Isaac's projected path and its potential impact on Munroe Regional. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the storm's path after its projected passage over Cuba on Saturday and Sunday, but computer models show it possibly making landfall somewhere in South Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.

A friendly reminder to everyone to replace their batteries, follow their department policies for preparation, prepare at home with canned food, alternative energy sources and making sure everyone has their Emergency Drinking Water source, as well as medication needs in the event of potential activation. The 2012 Hurricane Preparedness Handbook and Hurricane Preparedness Plan are available for your review. This handbook and plan are intended for you to use as a resource during hurricane season.

In an effort to provide effective communication during the critical time as we prepare for, and during the potential storm, Munroe's public information office has created several easy-to-find and convenient places for associates, physicians and volunteers to get all communication related to a crisis/weather event at the medical center. Below are the communication channels established at Munroe Regional for effective and timely messaging in the event of a crisis or weather alert.

1. Munroe Regional's Bulletin Board: Updates will be given daily on the home page of the Bulletin Board. For weather events, information will also be posted on the Weather Watch Tab of the Bulletin Board. This tab provides you with updates on weather alerts, as well as access to important emergency preparedness documents, such as the 2012 Hurricane Preparedness Handbook and Hurricane Preparedness Plan.

2. Tele-Talk Line: Call ext 5333 or 352-402-5333 from an external phone line for pertinent updates on the storm, if you cannot access a computer.

3. Email Updates: A daily email from Munroe Regional’s associate e-News brief will also be distributed to all associates at the end of the day with a recap of the day’s events and the outlook for the following day.

4. Munroe Regional’s web site: A Hurricane Preparedness page has been created and can be found at www.munroeregional.com/hurricane. This will include associate and storm tracking information as well as  emergency preparedness information.

5. Social Media: Community updates will be provided through both social media outlets-via Munroe’s Facebook and Twitter-during the crisis event.

6. If electronic communication channels ARE NOT available due to power outages or system failure the following outlets will be used for communication.

  • Flyers will be posted in the main traffic areas of Munroe Regional and delivered to the patient care units.
  • Information will be shared with our local news media and updates will be made available by our local radio stations, TV stations and newspaper.

If you have questions after reviewing the Hurricane Plan, or any of the information above, please contact your direct supervisor.

Tropical Storm Isaac | August 23, 2012 | 0900 EDT

At 5am EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Isaac was located about 255 miles south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico, or approximately 1,275 miles from Miami, Florida.

  • After a wobble to the southwest and a reformation of the center of circulation last night, Isaac is moving west at 12 mph. Although additional “wobbles” are possible, a general west-northwest motion is expected for the next day or 2 as it is steered around the southern edge of a large high pressure system in the central Atlantic Ocean.
  • Computer model track guidance is coming into better agreement (the outlying westward models have shifted east and the outlying east models shifting west) and many of these, along with the official NHC forecast, take Tropical Storm Isaac south of Puerto Rico and then across southern Dominican Republic and Haiti tomorrow.
  • Beyond that time, high pressure should weaken, which will allow Isaac to curve northwest across eastern Cuba and into the Florida Straits and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some models still signal a more westward movement across central or western Cuba. The official forecast track has Isaac moving across the Florida Keys early Monday and then moving towards the Florida Panhandle, to a position roughly 85 miles west of Tampa early Tuesday morning.
  • Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 40 mph, but conditions are favorable to promote strengthening. There is still a chance Isaac could become a hurricane before reaching Hispaniola, but the highest chances are that it may remain a tropical storm.
  • Isaac is a large storm, and tropical storm force winds now extend up to 140 miles from the center.
  • Any land interaction with Haiti and Cuba will likely weaken the storm, but warm water in the Florida Straits will allow for some re-strengthening.
  • Several Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will be deployed today that will help further increase confidence in the long-range track and intensity. It is important to note that computer model guidance, especially beyond 72 hours, can still be unreliable.
  • More information is available at the National Hurricane Center.

Florida Outlook:

  • It is too early to forecast the extent of any affects Tropical Storm Isaac will have on Florida. Everyone in and near the error cone should continue to closely monitor this system and begin to review their preparedness plans.
  • There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect for Florida, but much of Florida is within the 5 day error cone. Remember that the cone does not necessarily forecast impacts.
  • Portions of South Florida from Palm Beach to Ft. Myers now have a 30-40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds within the next 5 days. Tampa currently has a 22% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds and Tallahassee has a 10% chance. All of Florida currently has less than a 5% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within 5 days.
  • Flood Warnings are in effect for 6 Florida rivers.